January 2025
Donald Trump was sworn in on 20 January 2025.
President Donald Trump returned to the White House and signed multiple executive orders on his first day in office aimed at immigration, transgender protection, the environment, and diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives.
Donald Trump announced his plan to launch the "largest deportation program in American history." The plan includes ending President Joe Biden’s catch-and-release policies, reinstating "Remain in Mexico," building the border wall, ending asylum for people crossing the border illegally, cracking down on criminal sanctuaries, and "enhancing vetting and screening of aliens," according to a White House email on Monday.
Trump signs order attempting to end birthright citizenship. Birthright citizenship has been established in the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, meaning Trump’s attempts to stop the policy will likely face legal challenges.
January 6 rioters pardoned by Trump. The cases of all the 1 500-plus people charged with crimes in the January 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol riot.
Trump rolling back protections for transgender people. Based on Donald Trump’s executive order, the definition of what is male, or female will be based on whether people are born with eggs or sperm, rather than on their chromosomes. Additionally, the order would also block requirements at government facilities and at workplaces that transgender people be referred to using the pronouns that align with their gender.
Withdrawal from the Paris climate treaty. Trump said he will again withdraw the United States, a top carbon polluting nation, from the landmark Paris climate agreement, dealing a blow to worldwide efforts to combat global warming and once again distancing the U.S. from its closest allies.
Trump signs order to keep TikTok open temporarily for 75-days to continue operating in the U.S., allowing its China-based parent company additional time to secure a U.S. buyer. Elon Musk is mentioned.
Trump rolls back environmental protections with an executive order, reversing climate policies aimed at reducing planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions.
Directive to every department and agency to address the cost-of-living crisis
Trump also signed a directive telling federal agencies to conduct a 30-day review of how they can help to lower the costs of housing, health care, food, energy, and home appliances as well as finding ways to bring more people into the workforce.
Freezing all federal hiring except for military and a few other essential areas. He also introduced a requirement that federal workers will have to return to the office immediately.
President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the World Health Organization via executive order. He cited the organization’s “mishandling” of the COVID-19 pandemic and the funds contributed by the U.S. in his executive order ending the country’s membership.
His tenure at the Whitehouse promises to be interesting.
Israel and Hamas agree a ceasefire and hostage deal.
The Israeli proposal for a deal with Hamas was publicly presented by US President Joe Biden on May 31, 2024. That proposal sets out a three-phase agreement “on the exchange of hostages and prisoners and restoring a sustainable calm,” and provides for the release of 33 Israeli hostages in the first phase. The ceasefire started on Sunday (January 19, 2025) at 12:15 local time, for an initial period of six weeks. Israel will start to withdraw its troops from the Gaza Strip. Both sides will also release prisoners. Three Israeli hostages were released on 19 January. They were the first of 33 that Hamas is expected to free during the first phase of the deal. More than seven hours later, Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
The Israeli side will gradually reduce the forces in the Philadelphi corridor area during stage 1 based on maps and the agreement between both sides. After the last hostage release of stage one, on day 42, the Israeli forces will begin their withdrawal and complete it no later than day 50.
Other parts of the world
China’s 4th quarter GDP grew at 5.4%, beating market expectations as stimulus measures kicked in. This lifted China’s full-year GDP growth to 5%, in line with their official target.
Canada is preparing to retaliate with an exhaustive list of tariffs on American goods if President Trump introduces a 25% import tax on Canadian goods, potentially kick-starting a trade war. However, tariffs on Canada was delayed for one month in return for strengthening their borders into the US.
Japan’s 40-year government bond yield reached its highest level since its inception in 2007 amid a global debt selloff and expectations that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates in coming months.
President Donald Trump said that if Russia does not end the war in Ukraine soon, strict sanctions will be imposed on the country by America.
The 2025 World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, had a resonating theme of “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age.” Key topics included:
Geopolitics requires constructive optimism. Leaders shared their insights on how Trump's return to power could influence trade, technology, and the geopolitical landscape.
Climate, nature, and energy that needs to get back on track as 2024 was the planet’s warmest year on record.
Economic growth and finance: Tariffs and soaring levels of global public debt was troubling economists.
Jobs, health, and inclusion: Experts repeated the need to close gender gaps across health, politics, and economics to empower women – and boost growth.
AI, technology and industry and the potential of agentic AI. (Agentic AI refers to a new class of artificial intelligence systems designed to act with autonomy, making decisions and taking actions without direct human intervention).
South Africa
South Africa’s inflation rate increased marginally to 3% in December 2024, up from 2.9% in November but below the 3.2% forecast. This remains significantly below the South African Reserve Bank's preferred midpoint target of 4.5%. However, as shown in the next graph, it is expected that although inflation might increase going forward, it should still be below the midpoint of the targeted range. This might allow for more interest rate cuts with two 0.25% cuts priced in for the first half of 2025. Rates will therefore be higher for longer than anticipated.
South Africa Inflation Rate
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Cyril Ramaphosa (as leader of the G20 in 2025) set out a G20 agenda that supports more muscular measures to address climate change and speaks for diversity and a cooperative world. This is in sharp contrast to the Trump doctrine that has emerged in the past weeks.
Transnet’s rail network looks set to gain momentum as several private-sector players are ready to support the state-owned transport group. Private-sector participants have until Friday, 7 February to apply for slots on Transnet’s rail corridor. In this phase, Transnet has allocated 2.1 million tonnes of rail capacity for private-sector parties. The good news is that several private-sector players are ready to support Transnet, including Traxtion and Grindrod, which have the financial resources (billions of rands) to support the SOE. There is also a new source of revenue for Transnet, as the fees that private-sector players will pay will boost its revenue.
Businesses in the towns of Newcastle and Vereeniging are reeling over the imminent closure of ArcelorMittal SA’s (Amsa’s) plants. It is set to devastate the local economies and hurt municipal revenues. The closure will directly affect over 3 000 direct jobs and many more indirect jobs. It will also hurt car manufacturing plants in the Eastern Cape, impacting on the broader economy.
South African financial markets are undergoing a rare monumental shift in 2025 and 2026. Jibar (the Johannesburg Interbank Rate) is being replaced with Zaronia (the South African Rand Overnight Index Average). Jibar offers 0.15% to 0.25% higher returns, so a Jibar +100 will in future be Zaronia + 120 basis points.
Expropriation Bill
The announcement on Thursday, 24 January 2025 that President Cyril Ramaphosa has signed the Expropriation Bill into law has drawn expressions of concern and legal threats. However, it is argued that if this bill was scrapped, it would do nothing to prevent the state from expropriating land, since that right was already enshrined in the Constitution. What the bill does do, in theory, is provide certain checks and balances.
Among these is that it provides for extensive consultation with affected parties, including financial institutions that hold bonds over the affected property, and persons who have rights to the land but are not landowners. It also provides for a series of offers and counteroffers to promote agreement between the owner, bond holder and authority on the amount of compensation. Should it be impossible to reach agreement, then compensation must be decided upon by a court of law. What is certain is that the law will be abundantly tested in court. Werksmans attorneys claim that if land and property is utilized, chances are zero that it will be expropriated without compensation. It is seen as a political game by the ANC to force the DA to battle different acts at the same time (Bela, NHI).
An opinion poll conducted by the Bureau of Market Research (BMR) among 36 top economists in South Africa regarding the economic outlook for the first half of 2025 highlighted several key findings on the following topics:
Global Economic Performance
Local Economic Performance
Household Finances
Job Creation
Consumer Price Inflation
Repo Rate
Challenges
Recommendations
The following shows the predictions of two of the key factors:
Expectations for global economic performance during the first half of 2025
Expectations for local economic performance during the first half of 2025
Snippets from the market
South Africa will host the G20 summit in 2025.
New vehicle sales continued strong rally in December.
26 executive orders - President Donald Trump signed more Day 1 executive orders than the last ten presidents combined.
Described by The Economist as the world’s most important prisoner and by multiple news organisations as the ‘Palestinian Mandela’, Marwan Barghouti appears to be favoured by most of Palestinians as the man they want as their elected leader.
The US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in December to 2.9%. The core CPI rate was 3.2%.
After 11 years, Sygnia is going to introduce admin fees on its own funds.
China’s economy expanded by 5.4%, surpassing market expectations of 5.0%. China’s December exports rose 10.7% while imports grew by 1.0%. China's trade surplus grew to US$104.8 billion in December, up from US$97.4 billion in November.
DeepSeek, a new AI chatbot from China has sent the US stock market tumbling as its apparent performance on a small budget has shaken up the tech landscape. The app operates in a similar fashion to OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini, but its developers say they have achieved these results for a fraction of the cost.
Bidvest Bank is being sold to Nigerian-based Access Bank, which is set to expand the latter’s operations in South Africa substantially
UK CPI was 2.5%, down from 2.6%. Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) rose by 4.2%, down from 4.4% in November.
Retail sales in the UK fell by 0.3% pointing to a slow-down in demand.
The vast majority of Gen Z (86%) and Millennials (73%) said they would rather accept lower returns on their pension savings and work past the standard retirement age than fund what they perceive to be socially or environmentally damaging industries. Only 34% of the general population feel the same way.
South Korean president arrested by anti-corruption investigators following his shock martial law decree of a few weeks ago!
Increasing speculation that Chinese officials may be comfortable with selling TikTok’s US assets to Elon Musk.
Early indications are that two-pot withdrawals are being used for debt repayments, consumer spending, settling of tax liabilities, and discretionary investments.
Investment vehicle Reinet announced that it will fully exit its position in British American Tobacco, raising approximately R28 billion.
Motorists can expect to be hit with big fuel price increases for the 4th consecutive month in February due to increases in the oil price and rand weakness.
South African government considers listing stated-owned firms, with a view toward fostering investment.
87.6% - the pass rate for students who wrote the national senior certificate, the highest pass rate since 1994. 98.47% - pass rate for IEB students.
94 – the number of hours Cape Town commuters lost in traffic last year, putting the city in 7th place globally for congestion, and yet Cape Town was crowned 2025’s Best City in the World!
Transnet aims to eliminate copper theft by replacing cables with satellite technology.
Thirteen South African Defence Force peacekeepers were killed around Goma in eastern DR Congo. The SANDF said it is preparing to send reinforcements from South Africa to the region.
The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee decided to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points for the first quarter of 2025
The Special Investigating Unit has called on the City of Johannesburg to ensure all supply chain management officials undergo training and lifestyle audits.
The offices of the DA’s Cape Town mayoral committee members Xanthea Limberg and JP Smith were raided in a police crackdown.
MK party leader Jacob Zuma’s daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, appeared in the Durban magistrate’s court in connection with the July 2021 riots. The matter was transferred to the Durban High Court for a hearing on 20 March.
With some help from private sector clients, Transnet has gone ahead and invested in new equipment at the Durban Port’s container terminal 2, rather than wait for the outcome of the court battle.
Coal exports from Richards Bay Coal Terminal rose 10% to 52.08 million tonnes in 2024, the highest in three years, amid signs of improving freight rail performance.
South African hotels and other tourist accommodation increased their income in November by 12.1% compared to the same month in 2023.
The National Energy Regulator of South Africa has approved a 12.7% tariff increase on electricity prices from 1 April for this year. As well as increases of 5.3% and 6.1% for the next two financial years. Far less than the requested 36.15%.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio has issued a waiver partially lifting the Trump administration’s freeze on foreign aid, potentially offering a reprieve for US-funded HIV/Aids programmes that provide life-saving treatment.
South Africa’s biggest industry body for private hospitals is pressing ahead with legal action against the ANC’s controversial National Health Insurance Act.
Mozambique's international bonds have tumbled after reports that the new government in Maputo is weighing a debt restructuring following months of post-election turmoil.
Donald Trump has pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht. Ulbricht was sentenced to life in prison for running a place where drug dealers and others conducted $200 million in illicit trade using bitcoin.
Donald Trump has tapped Sean Curran to be the next Director of the Secret Service. Curran was part of Trump’s security detail during his assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, last July
US debt is > $35 trillion - > $107k per capita!
US debt issuance is averaging US$159 million a month, which is requires to the US$2 trillion budget deficit.
By way of comparison, SA debt/GDP was 75.1% in September 2024, and Japan’s was 217.4%!
Rising US Government debt is a problem, and it's going to get worse
Climate Change | Hollywood LA Wildfires
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